New York –  March 21, 2002 – Oscar time is fast approaching, bringing with it the possibility of some very big payoffs for studios, both at the box office and on rental shelves. For those movies still playing in theaters, a Best Picture nomination alone virtually guarantees a box office boost – particularly during the weekend immediately after the nominations.  In fact, in the last five years, The Thin Red Line is only Best Picture nominee that actually declined in box office revenues during the post-nomination weekend (by $45,000).

On the other hand, historical data suggests that for titles that have already been released to video, rentals will indeed increase – particularly if the film actually wins one of the major awards.  The big winner of 1991, Silence of the Lambs, had been out on home video for several months when Oscar nominations were announced.  Rental volume picked up gradually, and then surged for a few weeks after the film swept the awards ceremony – taking home Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Adapted Screenplay.  Rentals of Lambs grew by 70% after the Oscars.  Total spending on rental of that title, including only the four weeks prior to the awards and the four weeks after the awards, was approximately $33 million (Lambs had a higher rental volume but a lower price paid per rental at that time).  Demand outpaced supply on the title during this period, as rental locations were not prepared for the sleeper title’s triumph at the awards.

Gladiator, 2000’s Best Picture winner, first emerged on rental shelves November 21, 2000, a full three months before Oscar nominations were announced. Gladiator was nominated for a total of 11 awards, including Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Screenplay, among others. The average weekly rental volume for the four weeks after the awards was 5% larger than the average from the four weeks prior to the awards (VHS and DVD combined). Despite a minor up-tick, the total rental spending on Gladiator from the four weeks before the Oscars through the fourth week after the Oscars totaled $40 million. Keep in mind that this activity was three to four months after the home video release! Gladiator was also shrewdly re-released to theaters on February 16, 2000 in select cities around the country, grossing an additional $1.1 million in spending by the time its second round at the box office wrapped up.

What with the adoption of revenue sharing and copy depth deals, rental market supply is better suited to handle a surge in demand on any or all of the winners – if they are on home video!

About Alexander & Associates, Inc.
Alexander & Associates is a marketing and management consulting firm working with clients in the entertainment industries.  They are located in New York City.  Since 1987, they have produced Video Flash, the weekly home video market measurement instrument for studio and retail clients.  Among their special studies, they have recently released the report on the Advanced Media Communities project, a look at the media behaviors of households in five communities around the country that have every advanced home entertainment option.